Press Release

Issued by Forecast International.

November 8, 2017

Data from Forecast International's innovative Platinum Forecast System 3.1 show that a total of 12,282 business jets will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031. The Connecticut-based market research firm estimates the value of this production at $354 billion in 2017 U.S. dollars.

Forecast International projects that annual business jet production will rise from 647 aircraft in 2017 to 799 in 2020. Although cyclical economic factors are expected to result in slightly declining production in the 2021-2022 timeframe, the market is forecast to quickly rebound in 2023, with annual output rising steadily to 957 aircraft by the year 2030.

"Some segments of the business jet market have already been experiencing growth, as annual production of light and mid-size jets has risen since 2013," said Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski. "This growth is expected to continue in the years ahead."

The business jet sector is a tale of two markets, though, as production of larger-capacity jets, such as large-cabin and long-range models, has declined since 2013. The market for these aircraft is more geographically diverse than is the market for smaller jets. Economic sluggishness in certain key regions, combined with market saturation in North America, has contributed to weak demand in the segment. 

"The market for larger business jets will improve in coming years, due to continuing improvement in global economic conditions, service entry and initial production ramp-ups of a number of new aircraft, and an increasing need for operators to replace older aircraft," said Jaworowski.

Platinum Forecast System 3.1 also includes projections of manufacturer market shares, among a wealth of other data. Textron Aviation subsidiary Cessna is projected to lead the business jet market in unit production during the 2017-2031 forecast period on production of 3,178 aircraft, representing 25.9 percent of the market. Gulfstream is projected to be second, based on forecast production of 2,277 business jets, for a market share of 18.5 percent. Embraer is third, with production of 2,255 aircraft and a share of 18.4 percent.

When the market is measured in monetary value of production, Gulfstream takes the lead. The Georgia-based company is forecast to produce $121 billion worth of business jets, for a market share of 34 percent. Bombardier is projected to generate $87 billion in production value, for a 24.5 percent share. Dassault's market share is estimated at 15.3 percent, with $54.4 billion worth of business jet production.